What's the "Shelf Life" of a Programmer?

This Tuesday I went to the main campus to teach a “Current Affairs and Policy” class to freshmen. This class is usually pretty far-fetched — often covering things like when communism will be realized, one country two systems, reunifying China, etc. Having me teach current affairs, I naturally wouldn’t discuss these things. At least I’m somewhat of a professional. I talked to the students about some phenomena in the software industry, mixed with some hearsay and firsthand experiences, interspersed with jokes. An hour passed happily.

But after class, a student came up and asked a question that truly stunned me. With a look of righteousness and bitterness, like an underground party member captured by the reactionaries, he said: Teacher, tell me, what exactly is our “shelf life”?

I immediately understood — it’s the perennial question of programming being a “young person’s game” (followed by specific income questions, precise to the last digit, like: how much money can I make…). Coming from a freshman who’s only been in school a few months, as a typical post-80s, I can’t help but lament “materialism prevails, morals decline, ethics collapse, hearts are no longer ancient”… Back when I was in university, we did whatever the teacher said. As for how much money we’d make out there, it never even crossed our minds in dreams. Truly, the waves behind drive the waves ahead — we post-80s have been ruthlessly pushed onto the beach by the post-90s.

But if you’re angry, I’m angrier. On the issue of programming being a young person’s game, here’s my take. Agree or not, I don’t care:

First, you think programmers will必然 lose their jobs at 40. My view: China’s software industry started way too late. While Bill Gates was preparing to start Microsoft, China was in the throes of the great proletarian cultural revolution. While Apple was launching the Mac, we were still saying “computers start from the kids.” Only when those kids grew up did China really have some software that could be called an industry. So, does China have a population of 40-year-old programmers right now? No. So why scare yourself with the notion that programmers lose their jobs at 40? When China restructured industries and大批 textile and steel workers were laid off, “starting over” was a common sight. But has anyone seen a large number of 40-year-old former programmers flipping pancakes or selling麻辣烫 from street stalls? Still no. From this perspective, worrying about being laid off at 40 is like worrying about the world ending in 2012. Everyone talks about it, so you believe it. And you’re scared to death — ready to spend all your money before 2012, lest you “die with money unspent.”

Second, you think programmers must constantly learn new things, exhausting themselves, and can’t compete with the post-00s and post-10s when they’re 40. The software industry does develop quickly, but that’s the nature of a sunrise industry. If you’re afraid of learning, don’t study software — switch majors as soon as possible. Go blend into traditional industries. Like farming — 1000 years ago they grew corn and potatoes, and they still grow the same corn and potatoes today. Sow in spring, harvest in autumn. Hasn’t changed for millennia — absolutely no fear of being淘汰. Wait, that doesn’t sound right either. Farming is also getting high-tech — genetically modified crops, organic farming. What industry lets you use what you learned in university for life? None. I used to study accounting. After China joined the WTO, accounting changed too. Besides, learning is an incremental process, not a steep one. If you know .NET Framework 2.0, is learning 3.0 really that hard?

Third, you think programmers’ salaries are low with no future. Sigh, asking me for the average salary — how would I know? Averages are meaningless. Among my classmates five years after graduation, some make 4K a month and others 40K. Some are even their own bosses — more than a tenfold difference. It depends on your own skill level. If you think you’ll必然 be the one making 4K, you can’t blame anyone else. But there’s indeed a bad phenomenon in China compared to abroad: technical positions pay less than management. “Excellence in learning leads to officialdom.” In simple terms: if you’re good at technical work, you become a manager — even though you might not be a good manager, your salary and social status go up. This is 5000 years of Chinese tradition. If you really want to do technical work and make money, you can defect overseas. Legitimate channels: skilled migration. Less legitimate: swim or stow away. Even less legitimate: apply for political asylum…

In a word, Premier Wen teaches us: information is more important than gold. If you have no confidence in this profession, you won’t achieve anything no matter what you do. Might as well go do something else. If you think stock trading is good, go trade stocks. If you think being a gangster is good, go follow Wen Qiang or Xu Wenqiang. If you think real estate is good, go follow Wang Shi, Pan Shiyi…