iPhone V.S. Windows Mobile V.S. Symbian (Continued)
II. Development Technologies and Languages:
With the iPhone SDK release, iPhone has become an open platform. Third-party programs can run on iPhone. Currently, iPhone development can only be done on Mac OS (given Mac’s low market share in China, this is a serious blow for domestic developers wanting to try the SDK). iPhone development is very similar to Mac OS application development: Object C, Interface Builder, Cocoa, etc. — mostly the same. This makes it easy for Mac developers to transition to iPhone (again, how many Mac developers are there in China?). But the SDK’s openness is limited — many底层 operations aren’t provided (e.g., writing an IME or driver).
Windows Mobile development is quite friendly for Microsoft developers (and there are plenty in China). Visual Studio, .NET, C#, MFC — all familiar. Writing for Windows Mobile is similar to writing for Windows, so the entry barrier is low.
As for Symbian development, there are generally two choices: Symbian C++ or J2ME. J2ME isn’t unique to Symbian — other platforms have it too, so it’s not really part of Symbian development. But Symbian’s native C++ is genuinely difficult to use. Symbian doesn’t resemble any other platform — you need to learn a new development mechanism and class library from scratch. Even for an experienced C++ developer, understanding newLC and using it correctly takes time. The IDE is based on Eclipse — passable.
Overall ease of learning, for China: Windows Mobile is easier, Symbian and iPhone are about equal. Given Mac’s market share, domestic developers have essentially zero Mac experience — they’d start from scratch too.
III. Market and Prospects
Technical people, especially academics, tend to hate talking about Market. But no one wants their work to go unused. So sometimes, choosing the right organization and team is crucial. Pick the wrong side, and no matter how strong your skills, you’ll remain unknown or only娱乐 yourself. Finally, let me “predict” the prospects of these platforms over the next 5-10 years. For reference only.
As phones grow more complex, imagine 5-10 years from now — phones will be even more important than today. They may become a more important personal digital platform than PCs, with each person owning one. Smartphone market share will increase, while低端 phones will gradually exit the market. In a few years, Windows Mobile, iPhone, and Symbian market shares may all increase, eating into the low-end market.
iPhone’s biggest problem in China is how to enter the market. With negotiations with China Mobile at an impasse, it’s unclear when iPhone will arrive in China. This brings uncertainty to its future domestic development. Developers can still buy grey-market phones, develop, and sell their software to foreigners on the Apple Store. With creativity, they might even make some money. iPhone 2.0 adds enterprise support: VPN and MS Exchange Server. If iPhone can顺利 enter China, prospects shouldn’t be bad.
Windows Mobile isn’t growing fast, but steadily. Market share increases每年. It should maintain growth in coming years. Five years from now, market share should be slightly higher than today. But Windows Mobile probably won’t see explosive growth like iPhone.
Among the three, I’m least optimistic about Symbian. Nokia isn’t a software company by DNA. Symbian’s current market share comes entirely from the Nokia brand. Symbian started as a collaboration among several major manufacturers, but now it seems only Nokia is left performing. Nokia has to maintain the OS and develop applications — very tiring. It’s possible that in a few years, Nokia will abandon Symbian and embrace open source. More scary: like Palm, they might scrap their own system for Windows Mobile.