Google Buys Motorola — My Three-Step Embedded Prediction Comes True Again
I came back tonight to find all the news was about Google acquiring Motorola Mobility. With all the commentary floating around, let me share my thoughts too.
Our political textbooks love saying “historical inevitability.” To me, this move is also historically inevitable. I’ve always believed that embedded software development, in the areas closest to people’s lives, will follow three steps: first, smartphones; second, digital TV; third, automotive electronics. Specifically, phone, TV, and car manufacturers will all become software companies.
Think back 10 years. The best phone companies were telecom companies: Nokia, Ericsson, Motorola, Siemens. Back then, software wasn’t important — at most 10% of the system. The key was the communication module. But not anymore. Making calls and sending texts have become supporting features in phones, on par with the touchscreen and earphones. So now the leaders in the phone space are software companies: Apple, Microsoft, Google — all do software. iPhone, gPhone, Windows Phone — these represent the big trend. So Hello Moto becomes Hello Google. No surprise there.
Step two is the TV. This is still embryonic, but growing strong. Apple and Google are making set-top boxes, though they haven’t reached major status yet. Microsoft has always wanted to control the TV, and Xbox 360 is their key play in this arena — that’s why they’ve poured billions into Xbox. We’re already seeing some Android TVs and Apple TV-like products. How will we know step two is complete? When you go to Suning to buy a TV and there’s no Philips, no Panasonic, no Sharp, no Sony, no TCL, no Hisense. They’ve all been acquired by software companies or withered away. Only iTV, gTV, and Windows TV remain.
Step three is further off. But the seeds are visible. Some companies are putting Android in cars. Google is working on self-driving. When you go to buy a car, there’ll be no Benz, no BMW, no Buick, no Ford, no Toyota, no Chery. They’ll have been acquired by software companies or withered away. Only iCar, gCar, and Windows Car.
This is my prophecy. Written in Harry Potter’s Prophecy. Let’s check in 20 years to see if it holds.
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Next step: real estate developers. Apple acquires Vanke, Google acquires Poly. Buying houses means only iHome, gHome, Windows Home.
Next step: political parties. Elections without the KMT or DPP — only iParty, gParty, and Windows Party.
Eventually there’ll be only three countries: iCountry, gCountry, and Windows Country.
Programmers have a bright future ahead.
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Looking at the comments, people love this YY. So let’s run with it. iHome/gHome/Windows Home Enhanced Edition:
In the future, the property deed will list your Apple ID / Google ID / Windows Live ID. Your mother-in-law will demand your Google ID password before agreeing to the marriage.
iHome:
House selection and transactions happen at the Apple Store. Two models: iHome and iHome Pro, occupying 32 sqm and 64 sqm respectively, priced at 4.99 million and 6.99 million per unit.
There’s also a compact model with extra-low ceilings and paper-thin walls — the thinnest and lightest house ever, called iHome Air.
iHome releases one new development per year. Floor plans and designs are kept top secret before each launch, fueling all kinds of rumors. Steve Jobs personally attends each launch ceremony. Every new edition is “revolutionary.”
Furniture and appliances for iHome can only be purchased through the App Store. Apple takes a 30% cut from furniture and appliance manufacturers. Hackers discover iHome vulnerabilities and develop HomeBreak, allowing homemade furniture and appliances.
iHome accessories are also pricey. Apple launches a smart door called SmartDoor — the light turns on automatically when the owner opens the door…
iHome looks amazing, and demand far exceeds supply. Property speculators hoard iHomes and resell at huge markups. iHome owners feel incredibly proud. Legend has it that someone sold a kidney just to buy an iHome…
Domestic developers spot an opportunity and create iHome lookalikes: HiHome, CiHome, Golden Apple Mansions, at 1/4 the price.
All iHomes worldwide are built by Chinese construction crews. Word is the migrant workers building iHomes work so hard that some have jumped off buildings.
gHome:
Google doesn’t build houses itself — it just designs the blueprints and gives them away for free to builders like Vanke and Gemdale. This means gHome apartments vary wildly in size, from 320x240 to 1280x800.
gHome blueprints update too fast — sometimes three times a year — so buyers find their houses obsolete right after purchase. Shady developers refuse to rebuild according to the new plans, causing widespread anger.
Making furniture and appliances for gHome is painful — you have to install them in every single Vanke and Poly building, or they won’t work in certain developments.
Some domestic developers take gHome blueprints, change the exterior paint and window glass, and claim them as their own intellectual property. Famous examples: LeHome, OHome. Some go further, hiring renovation crews to make gHome look exactly like iHome…
Because of Google’s poor relationship with xxx, some built-in furniture in gHome can’t be used in China…
Windows Home:
Microsoft developed the Windows House development 10 years before iHome launched. They’ve already sold 6.5 editions. But pressured by iHome and gHome, building the 7th edition took forever — they even demolished half-built buildings and started over. The result is Windows Home 7. People wonder why the 7th edition looks so different from the earlier ones in the same complex.
The slogan was “Housing puts the owner first.” The developer was once hugely successful — at their peak, they’d just repaint the walls and call it a new design. But in recent years, they’ve fallen hard under external pressure, betting everything on Windows Home.
The first residents of Windows Home had to speak English, or record their Chinese speech and play it back inside Windows Home…
The unique feature of Windows Home floor plans is that all rooms are arranged in a circle — residents just keep walking in circles to switch between rooms.
Windows Home’s interior design is characterized by square color blocks on the walls, inspired by subway advertisements.
Anyone who understands all the descriptions above of iHome, gHome, and Windows Home can skip my Mobile Application Development course…